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Notes on AI systems, financial infrastructure, and production ML. Updated as new pieces are finished.

Your Temporal GNN Is Wasting 98% of Your GPU and the Research Community Doesn't Talk About It

TGAT runs at 5–6% GPU utilisation. JODIE at 1.5–2.5%. DyRep under 2%. These are the published benchmarks. A March 2026 paper fixes the inference problem — and the speedup numbers are remarkable.

If LLMs Know About Reflexivity, Do They Forecast Better?

A May 2026 paper feeds Soros's theory of self-reinforcing market dynamics to GPT-5, Claude, and Gemini across two boom-bust cycles. The forecasting improves. The reason why is harder to establish than the paper suggests.

LLMs for Stock Forecasting: What the Hedge Fund Lens Reveals

Most academic papers on LLMs in finance report directional accuracy and call it done. A 2026 IEEE review asks what a fund manager would actually want to know.

The Single-Pass Assumption and Why Cast-R1 Makes It Uncomfortable

An assumption baked into every forecasting model we build — and a February 2026 paper that formalises why it's wrong.

Everyone Is Chasing Alpha. The Real AI Opportunity in Finance Is Keeping You Out of Jail.

Why compliance and risk are the most underinvested, highest-leverage AI problem in global markets — and what the stack should actually look like.