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Notes on AI systems, financial infrastructure, and production ML. Updated as new pieces are finished.

What Hedge Funds Actually Think About LLMs for Stock Forecasting (And Why Academia Gets It Wrong)

A 2026 IEEE-accepted paper finally says the quiet part out loud — data leakage, illiquidity blindness, and the evaluation metrics nobody in academia reports.

The Single-Pass Assumption and Why Cast-R1 Makes It Uncomfortable

An assumption baked into every forecasting model we build — and a February 2026 paper that formalises why it's wrong.

Everyone Is Chasing Alpha. The Real AI Opportunity in Finance Is Keeping You Out of Jail.

Why compliance and risk are the most underinvested, highest-leverage AI problem in global markets — and what the stack should actually look like.

If LLMs Know About Reflexivity, Do They Forecast Better? An Experiment Worth Taking Seriously

What happens when you feed Soros's theory of reflexivity to frontier LLMs and test them on boom-bust cycles? A May 2026 arXiv paper ran the experiment across the dot-com bubble and the GFC.

// In progress · arXiv:2606.00061